Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia and Ken Ohene Agyapong
Under the fourth Republic, no presidential candidate of any political party in Ghana has won elections without securing the Central Region. In the annals of our political records, it has been established that any candidate who fails to win the Central Region will invariably lose the general elections.
Prior to the 2020 general elections, there were regions popularly referred to as the swing regions, mainly Central, Western, Greater Accra, and the Bono Ahafo regions. The general assumption was that for any presidential candidate to win the race, they must necessarily win these swing regions, with specific emphasis on the Central and Greater Accra regions.
Assumptions
It was said that whoever would lose the Greater Accra Region would equally lose the general elections. However, this assumption was defeated in the 2020 presidential elections. Despite losing the Greater Accra Region, President Akufo-Addo and the NPP went ahead to win the elections with more than a comfortable margin.
This leaves the Central Region as the only region that has lived up to its billing as the winning region. This is because, despite losing the Greater Accra Region, the NPP went ahead to defeat the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the 2020 elections.
Indeed, the Central Region has established itself as the determinant of presidential fortunes, and if history is to serve as a guide, then it is one region that is going to play a crucial role in whether the NPP breaks the eight (8) or not.
Winning the 2024 elections will depend on a number of critical factors, among which will be winning the Central Region.
As established early on, the Central Region has established itself as a crucial region since whoever wins that region automatically wins the presidential race. This is not just a matter of conjecture; it is backed by available data.
Central Region factor
In the light of this, some individuals believe the NPP’s desire to break the eight will be contingent on its performance in that region, which is also the home region of Ken Ohene Agyapong.
For many, while the influence of Ken Ohene Agyapong in the Central Region has never been discounted, his showing in the just-ended presidential candidate elections of the NPP in the region really affirms him as a political colossus whose role in breaking the eight, especially in the region, will prove of immense benefit.
The number of votes he garnered to place second to the winner, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, remains unprecedented since the party expanded its electoral college, and this is in both nominal and percentage terms. For a candidate to secure 37% of the total valid votes cast in the primaries speaks volumes of his influence among the support base of the party.
Beyond the strong showing of Ken Ohene Agyapong across the board in terms of the number of popular votes he garnered, he also went ahead to win two most important regions: the Central and the Volta regions.
For the Central Region, it is not surprising because that is his political home region, as established earlier, where a chunk of the financial and logistical support he extends to the party in general goes. As such, he seems to have established some control over the regional party support and has the capacity to influence their voting pattern.
Strategic politics
It is, therefore, important that the party’s flagbearer links up with Ken Ohene Agyapong, and strategically positions him in his campaign with the specific task of winning the Central Region for the party in the 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections.
It is important to establish that more often than not, the odds are always against any governing party seeking a second term in an election, and the reasons are not farfetched.
Some of the challenges that make the odds weigh against the ruling government are both exogenous and internal. For the internal factors, it is important to establish that some may even come from the same personalities who supported the flagbearer bid of all candidates.
Furthermore, when the governing party has a flagbearer alongside a sitting President, it presents its own dynamics and challenges. Due to the executive presidential style operated in our country, where the sitting President has all the executive powers, it becomes a bit difficult for any elected new flagbearer of a ruling party to have his way unless his vision and programs of action align with the sitting President who is just about ending his term of office.
Circumstances
This situation sometimes breeds disagreements between the new flagbearer and the sitting President, and if not managed well can spark confusion. All these are potential stumbling blocks that can work against Dr. Bawumia in his bid to win a third term for the NPP.
It is for such reasons that Dr. Bawumia as the flagbearer needs strong and staunch power brokers within the party to stand behind him as godfathers to ward off all internal forces that may emerge in a run-up to the 2024 general elections.
Within the current circumstances of the NPP and weighing it against the weight of influence he enjoys, there is no gainsaying that the Assin Central MP holds the keys to making the breaking of the eight possible.
The first of such keys is that he holds the influence to enhance the party’s fortunes in his home region, the Central Region, a region that is going to play a very significant role in the party’s fortunes in the 2024 general elections.
Ken’s dominance/influence
In addition to holding the key of influence in his home region, one can equally not ignore his performance in the Volta Region, albeit a traditional stronghold of the main opposition NDC.
Ken Ohene Agyapong’s dominance in the NPP presidential primaries in that region clearly shows that he possesses what it takes to help break barriers to shore up the NPP’s numbers in the Volta Region.
Basically, increasing the number of votes in the traditional stronghold of an opponent gives an indication of a winning path to victory.
From the foregoing, it is evidently clear that if the 2024 flagbearer of the NPP really wants to break the eight (8) to win a third term for the party, then he would have to foster greater ties with Hon. Ken Ohene Agyapong, build stronger bridges, and position him for a strategic role.
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