The writer
Between 18 June and 1 July, anti-government demonstrations in Kenya resulted in an estimated 39 people killed and more than 350 more injured. In addition, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) stated that there were 32 cases of “enforced or involuntary disappearances” and 627 arrests of protesters.
KNCHR data on the deaths is almost double the figure previously disclosed by the authorities. Those killed were contesting a set of unpopular tax increases which the government withdrew following the deaths. Largely peaceful anti-tax rallies – mainly led by young people – descended into scenes of deadly violence in late June when Kenya’s lawmakers passed the contentious taxation legislation.
What starts in Kenya does not necessarily stay in Kenya. Like Kenya, Ghana is a country with a serious employment problem, especially for young people, who may have been educated to university level, but fail to find jobs commensurate with their qualifications. An estimated one third of Ghanaians under 30 are unemployed – and government may look to impose new taxes to try to balance the books.
Seeking greener pastures elsewhere
Many educated young people want to leave Ghana to find suitable employment elsewhere; many are sceptical that government can do much to help them in the context of an ailing economy and priorities which may lie elsewhere. Unpopular new taxes imposed by government in an attempt to balance the books can lead to tragic outcomes, as Kenya today can testify.
Over the last few years, Ghana has seen periodic demonstrations in Accra and elsewhere, where thousands of mainly young people have protested about the country’s growing socio-economic concerns, especially felt by the youth.
What is needed, the demonstrators claimed, is urgent policies to address social inequalities and improve democratic accountability. Thankfully, Ghana’s protests did not result in protesters’ deaths or prolonged instability.
Like Kenya, Ghana is going through very tough economic times, as every Ghanaian knows. Economically, things have been declining for some years. Many say there is more corruption around now, partly stimulated by the post-2010s oil wealth. Prior to this, Ghana had experienced rapid economic growth. Many observers explained this by the effects of good governance, consequential to economic and developmental programmes to improve Ghanaians’ quality of life, especially that of the poor living in regions far from Accra, including the Volta, Northern and Upper regions.
Boost on economic gains
Economic gains were boosted from 2007 with the discovery of offshore oil, and for the next few years, Ghana’s economy showed signs of exuberant growth. In 2019, the IMF described Ghana as ‘the world’s fastest growing economy’, with ‘skyrocketing’ growth. By 2022, Ghana had made remarkable progress; and some claimed Ghana was then the world’s fastest growing economy.
In addition, Ghana saw improved human development indicators (HDI). The Oxford Business Group reported in 2019 that Ghana’s HDI, as reported by the United Nations Development Programme, showed increased average life expectancy, rising from 56.8 years in 1990 to 63 in 2017. What’s more, Ghanaians were becoming better educated – with mean years of schooling increasing from 4.9 to 7.1 years.
Progress enabled the country’s HDI to advance from 0.455 to 0.592, placing Ghana in the ‘medium’ category, the leading country in sub-Saharan Africa.
Today, things are – much – less good. Economic conditions seem to be worsening. In February 2023, the inflation rate was a whopping 52.8%, before declining to 25% in April 2024. Despite this welcome fall, many people cannot keep up with fast-rising prices. They see them increasing by the day and many despair.
December polls
As December’s presidential and parliamentary elections approach, the remedies for the ailing economy put forward by the two leading parties, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC), look remarkably similar. The NPP wants to build a strong economy that creates opportunities and inspires more people to start new businesses, in which they will make new investments, to grow, and expand.
This, the NPP believes, will enable the private sector to create more well-paying jobs so that citizens prosper. The NPP’s programme – ‘Ghana Beyond Aid’ – is a long-term agenda that will look to use resources only from the country itself.
The NDC has put forward the concept of the ‘24 Hour Economy’ to kick start Ghana’s economy, increase prosperity, jobs and overall wellbeing, including for young people, who might expect to get more opportunities as a result of the policy. Like the NPP, the NDC believes that necessary economic growth will come primarily from the private sector, as jobs created by the state may not have the same beneficial impact on the economy.
It remains to be seen, of course, which of the two parties gets the chance to implement their economic reform programme. In part, voters will cast their ballots for the party which they feel can best deal with Ghana’s serious economic problems.
Whoever is in power following the elections will have a huge responsibility to put their money where their mouth is, and to bring about economic improvements so that citizens feel that their lot is improving. Not to do so is perhaps to risk the outbreak of serious protests with unknowable consequences.
The writer is an Emeritus Professor of Politics, London Metropolitan University, UK. Email:Tsjhayn1@gmail.com
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